Robert F. Engle
Education
B. S., Williams College, 1964, with Highest Honors in Physics
M. S., Physics, Cornell University, 1966
Ph. D., Economics, Cornell University, 1969
Academic Positions
Visiting Professor, Finance Department, Stern School of Business, New York University, 1999
Professor of Economics, UCSD, 1977-present
Chancellor’s Associates Chair in Economics, UCSD, 1993-present
Chair of Economics, University of California, San Diego, 1990-1994
Associate Professor, University of California, San Diego, 1975-1977
Associate Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1974-1977
Assistant Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1969-1974
Honors and Awards
Honors
The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2003 for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH)
Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1995
Econometric Society Council, 1994
The Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance, Roger F. Murray Prize Competition, 1991
NBER Research Associate, 1987 — Present
Fellow of the Econometric Society, 1981
Excellence in Teaching from MIT Graduate Economics Association, 1974-1975

Invited Lectures

Invited Speaker, Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Cancun, 1999
A. W. Phillips Lecture, Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Melbourne, 1997
Frank Paish Lecture, Annual Meeting of the Royal Economic Society, Swansea, 1996
Fisher-Schultz Lecture, European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Istanbul, 1996
Presented the Pareto Lecture for the Annual Meeting of ASSET, Istanbul, Turkey, 1995
Invited Speaker, Brazilian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Florianopolis, 1994
Invited Speaker, European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Upsalla, Sweden, 1993
Invited Speaker, Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Mexico City, 1992
Invited Speaker, Australiasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Sydney, 1991
Invited Speaker, Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society, Seoul, 1991
Presented address at European Meeting of Econometrics Society, 1987
Invited Speaker, Fifth World Congress of the Econometric Society, 1985

Publications
1. «Effects of aggregation over time on dynamic characteristics of an economic model,» (with T. C. Liu) in Burt G. Hickman, ed., Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Studies in Income and Wealth, v. 2, no. 36, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1972.
2. «An Econometric Simulation Model of Intra-Metropolitan Housing Location: Housing, Business, Transportation and Local Government,» (with Franklin M. Fisher, John R. Harris and Jerome Rothenberg) The American Economic Review 62 (1972): 87-97.

3. «Issues in the Specification of an Econometric Model of Metropolitan Growth,» Journal of Urban Economics 1 (1974): 250-267.

4. «Specification of the Disturbance for Efficient Estimation,» Econometrica 42 (974): 135-146.

5. «Band Spectrum Regression,» International Economic Review 15 (1973): 1-11.

6. «A Disequilibrium Model of Regional Investment,» Journal of Regional Science 14 (1974): 367-376.

7. «De Facto Discrimination in Residential Assessments: Boston,» National Tax Journal 28 (1975): 445-451.

8. «An Asset Price Model of Aggregate Investment,» (with Duncan Foley), International Economic Review 16 (1975): 625-647.

9. «Equilibrium in Regional Investment: A Reply,» Journal of Regional Science 15 (1975): 235-238.

10. «Some Finite Sample Properties of Spectral Estimators of a Linear Regression,» (with Roy Gardner), Econometrica 44 (1976): 149-165.

11. «Interpreting Spectral Analysis in Terms of Time Domain Models,» Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5 (1976): 89-109.

12. «Simultaneous Estimation of the Supply and Demand for Household Location in a Multizoned Metropolitan Area,» (with Katharine Bradbury, Owen Irvine, and Jerome Rothenberg), in Residential Location and Housing Markets (Gregory K. Ingram, ed.), (Ballinger 1977): 51-86.

13. «Policy Pills for a Metropolitan Economy,» Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association 35 (1976): 191-205.

14. «Constraints Often Overlooked in Analysis of Simultaneous Equation Models: Comment,» Econometrica 44 (1976): 617-819.

15. «Estimating structural models of seasonality,» in Seasonal Analysis Of Economic Time Series, ed. A. Zellner (U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1978).

16. «Hypothesis Testing in Spectral Regression; The Lagrange Multiplier Test as a Regression Diagnostic,» in Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. Jan Kmenta and James Ramsey, ( Academic Press, 1980).

17. «Testing Price Equations for Stability Across Frequency Bands,» Econometrica 46 (1978): 869-881.

18. «Long Term Residential Load Forecasting,» (with C. W. J. Granger, Allan Andersen, and Ramu Ramanathan) in Forecasting and Modeling Time of Day and Seasonal Electricity Demands (Electric Power Research Institute, Aspen, Colorado, 1977).

19. «Residential Load Curves and Time-Of-Day Pricing: An Econometric Analysis,» (with C. W. J. Granger, Ramu Ramanathan, and Allan Andersen), Journal of Econometrics 9 (1979): 13-32.

20. «Review of `The Econometrics of Panel Data’,» ed. Pascal Mazodier, Economic Journal 89 (1979): 999-1001.

21. «An Exploratory Policy Oriented Econometric Model of a Metropolitan Area: Boston,» in Essays in Quantitative Economics and Development in Memory of T. C. Liu, ed. L. R. Klein, M. Nerlove, S. C. Tsiang ( Academic Press, 1980).

22. «The Regional Response to Factor Supplies: Estimates for the Boston SMSA,» in Interregional Movements and Regional Growth; Coupe Papers on Public Economics, ed. William Wheaton (Urban Institute, 1979).

23. «Some problems in the estimation of daily load shapes and peaks,» (with C. W. J. Granger, Allen Mitchem, Ramu Ramanathan), in Modeling and Analysis of Electricity Demand by Time-of-Day, EPRI, EA-1304, December 1979.

24. Regional Load Curve Models, Volumes 2, 4, (with Granger and Ramanathan), EPRI EA-1672, Final Report of RP-1008.

25. «Exact Maximum Likelihood Methods for Dynamic Regressions and Band Spectrum Regressions,» International Economic Review 21 (1980):391-407.

26. «Testing some propositions about Proposition 13,» (with Richard Attiyeh), National Tax Journal 32 (979): 131-146.

27. «A Time Domain Approach to Dynamic Factor Analysis and Mimic Models,» (with Mark Watson), Les Cahiers de Seminaire d’Econometrie No. 22, 1980.

28. «Estimation of the Price Elasticity of Demand Facing Metropolitan Producers,» Journal of Urban Economics 6 (1979): 42-64.

29. «A One-Factor Multivariate Time Series Model of Metropolitan Wage Rates,» (with Mark Watson), Journal of the American Statistical Association 76 (1981): 774-781.

30. «Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity With Estimates of the Variance of U. K. Inflation,» Econometrica 50 (1982): 987-1008.

31. «Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Lagrange Multiplier Tests in Econometrics,» in Handbook of Econometrics, vol II, ed. Griliches and Intrilligator (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1984), 775-826.

32. «Multiperiod forecast error variances of inflation estimated from ARCH models,» (with Dennis Kraft), in Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data, ed. A. Zellner (Washington, D. C.: Bureau of the Census, 1983), 293-302.

33. «A Note on Robust Methods for ARIMA Models,» in Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data, ed. A. Zellner (Washington, D. C.: Bureau of the Census, 1981), pp. 176-177.

34. «A Microeconometric Analysis of Vacant Housing Units,» (with R. Marshall), in The Urban Economy and Housing, ed. Grieson (Lexington, 1983), 105-123.

35. «Applications of spectral analysis in econometrics,» (with C. W. J. Granger), The Handbook of Statistics, Vol. III, Time Series and the Frequency Domain, ed. Krishniah and Brillinger (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1983), 93-109.

36. «Exogeneity,» (with David F. Hendry and Jean-Francois Richard), Econometrica 51 (1983): 277-304.

37. «Alternative Algorithms for the Estimation of Dynamic Factor, MIMIC, and Varying Coefficient Regression Models,» (with Mark Watson), Journal of Econometrics 23 (1983): 385-400.

38. «A General Approach to Lagrange Multiplier Model Diagnostics,» Journal of Econometrics 20 (1982): 83-104.

39. «Estimates of the Variance of U. S. Inflation Based on the ARCH Model,» Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 15 (1983): 286-301.

40. «A comment on `The Econometric Analysis of Economic Time Series,’» International Statistical Review 51: 149-150.

41. «Two-step modeling for short term forecasting,» (with Ramu Ramanathan, C. W. J. Granger) in Studies in the Development and Implementation of Forecasting and State Estimation Procedures in the Electric Power Industry, ed. D. W. Bunn and E. D. Farmer (New York: Wiley and Sons, 1983).

42. «Short-Term Forecasting of Electricity Sales: A Comparison of New Methodologies,» (with Granger, Brown, Joiner, Stern and Wolin), in Forecasting in an Era of Technological Change: Proceeding of Fifth Forecasting Symposium, EPRI EA-4031, 1985, pp. 19-1 to 19-18.

43. «Combining Competing Forecasts of Inflation Based on a Multivariate ARCH Model,» (with Dennis Kraft and C. W. J. Granger), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 8 (1984): 151-165.

44. «A Dymimic Model of Housing Price Determination,» (with Mark Watson and David Lilien), Journal of Econometrics, 28 (1985): 307-326.

45. «Wholesale and Retail Prices: Bivariate Modeling with Forecastable Variances,» (with C. W. J. Granger and Russell Robins), in Model Reliability, ed. David Belsley and Edwin Kuh, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986), 1-17.

46. «Weather Normalization of Electricity Sales,» (with Granger, Ramanathan, Train and Ignelzi), EPRI, 1983.

47. «Forecasting Electricity Sales Over the Short Term: A Comparison of New Methodologies,» EPRI, 1986, (with Robert Goodrich).

48. «Discussion of `Diagnostic Tests as Residual Analysis’ by Pagan and Hall,» Econometric Reviews 2 (1983): 223-228.

49. «Econometric Forecasting — A Brief Survey of Current and Future Techniques,» (C. W. J. Granger), in Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, ed. K. C. Land and S. H. Schneider, (Reidel Publishing Co., 1987), 117-140.

50. «The Billing Cycle and Weather Variables in Models of Electricity Sales,» (with Kenneth Train, Patrice Ignelzi, Clive Granger, Ramu Ramanathan), Energy 9 (1984): 1041-1047.

51. «Model Selection for Forecasting,» (with S. Brown), Journal of Computation in Statistics, 1985.

52. «Small-Sample Properties of ARCH Estimators and Tests,» (with David Hendry and David Trumble), Canadian Journal of Economics 18 (1985): 66-93.

53. «Testing for Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative,» (with Mark Watson), Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (1985): 341-346.

54. «Semi-parametric estimates of the relation between weather and electricity demand,» (with C. W. J. Granger, J. Rice and A. Weiss), Journal of American Statistical Association 81 (1986): 310-320.

55. «Transportation Costs and the Rent Gradient,» (with N. Edward Coulson), Journal of Urban Economics 21 (1987): 287-297.

56. «The Kalman Filter: Applications to Forecasting and Rational Expectations Models,» (with Mark Watson), Invited Paper to the World Congress of the Econometric Society, Cambridge, 1985, in Advances in Econometrics Fifth World Congress, Volume I, ed. Truman Bewley), pp. 245-283.

57. «Estimation of Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: the ARCH-M Model,» (with David Lilien and Russell Robins), Econometrica 55 (1987): 391-407.

58. «Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,» (with C. W. J. Granger), Econometrica 55 (1987): 251-276.

59. «Modeling the Persistence of Conditional Variances,» (with Tim Bollerslev), Econometric Reviews 5 (1986): 1-50.

60. «Forecasting and Testing in Co-integrated Systems,» (with Sam Yoo), Journal of Econometrics 35 (1987): 143-159.

61. «A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time Varying Covariances,» (with T. P. Bollerslev and J. M. Wooldridge), Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 116-131.

62. «Merging Short and Long Run Forecasts: An Application of Seasonal Cointegration to Monthly Electricity Sales Forecasting,» (with Granger and Hallman), Journal of Econometrics 40 (1989): 45-62.

63. «A Comparison of Adaptive Structural Forecasting Methods for Electricity Sales,» Journal of Forecasting 7 (1988): 149-172.

64. «Seasonal Integration and Cointegration,» (with S. Hylleberg, C. W. J. Granger, B. S. Yoo) Journal of Econometrics 44 (1990): 215-238.

65. «Asset Pricing with a Factor ARCH Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills,» (with V. Ng, M. Rothschild) Journal of Econometrics 45 (1990): 213-237.

66. «Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Hetroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange market,» (with T. Ito, W. L. Lin) Econometrica 58 (1990): 525-542.

67. «Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey with New Results,» (with B. S. Yoo) in Long Run Economic Relations: Readings in Cointegration, ed. by R. Engle and C. W. J. Granger, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991), 237-266.

68. Long Run Economic Relations: Readings in Cointegration, (eds. R. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991).

69. «Editor’s Introduction,» (with C. W. J. Granger) in Long Run Economic Relations: Readings in Cointegration,«(eds. R. Engle and C. W. J. Granger), (Oxford: Oxford University Press,(1991), 1-16

70. «Modeling Peak Electricity Demand,» (with C. Mustafa and J. Rice), Journal of Forecasting 11(1992): 241-251.

71. «Implied ARCH Models from Options Prices,» (with C. Mustafa), Journal of Econometrics 52 (1992): 289-311.

72. «A Multi-Dynamic Factor Model for Stock Returns,» (with V. Ng and M. Rothschild), Journal of Econometrics 52 (1992): 245-266.

73. «Semi-Parametric ARCH Models,» (with G. Gonzalez), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 9 (1991): 345-359.

74. «Measuring Risk Aversion From Excess Returns on a Stock Index,» (with R. Chou and A. Kane), Journal of Econometrics 52 (1992): 201-224.

75. «Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy,» (with T. Ito and W. L. Lin), Journal of International Economics 32 (1992): 221-240.

76. «Seasonal Cointegration: The Japanese Consumption Function,» (with C. W. J. Granger, S. Hylleberg, H. S. Lee), Journal of Econometrics 55 (1993): 275-298.

77. «On The Determination of Regional Base and Regional Base Multipliers,» (with S. Brown and E. Coulson), Regional Science and Urban Economics 22 (1992): 619-635.

78. «ARCH Models in Finance,» (eds. R. Engle and M. Rothschild), Journal of Econometrics 52 (1992): 245-266.

79. «Editors Introduction» (with M. Rothschild), ARCH Models in Finance, eds. R. Engle and M. Rothschild, Journal of Econometrics 52 (1992): 1.

80. «Testing Super Exogeneity and Invariance,» (with D. Hendry), Journal of Econometrics, 56 (1993): 119-139.

81. «On the Theory of Growth Controls,» (with R. Carson and P. Navarro), Journal of Urban Economics 32 (1992): 269-283.

82. «Time Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure,» (with V. Ng), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25 (1993): 336-349.

83. «Statistical Models for Financial Volatility,» Financial Analysts Journal (Jan/Feb 1993): 72 — 78.

84. «Arbitrage Valuation of Variance Forecasts Using Simulated Options,» (with C. Hong, A. Kane and J. Noh) Advances in Futures and Options Research 6 (1993): 393-415.

85. «Common Volatility in International Equity Markets,» (with R. Susmel), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 11 (1993): 167 — 176.

86. «Common Persistence in Conditional Variances,» (with T. Bollerslev), Econometrica 61 (1993): 167-186.

87. «Cointegration — The Early Days» (with C. W. J. Granger), Citation Classics 25 (1993).

88. «Testing for Common Features,» (with S. Kozicki), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 11 (1993): 369 — 380.

89. «A Comment on Hendry and Clements on The Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors,» Journal of Forecasting 12 (1993): 642-644.

90. «Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America,» (with J. Issler), Revista Brasileira de Economia 47 (1993): 149-176.

91. «Common Trends and Common Cycles,» (with Farshid Vahid), Journal of Applied Econometrics 8 (1993): 341-360.

92. «Measuring and Testing the Impact of News On Volatility,» (with Victor Ng) Journal of Finance 48 (1993): 1749-1778.

93. «A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model,» (with Zhuanxin Ding and Clive W. J. Granger), Journal of Empirical Finance 1 (1993): 83-106.

94. «Hourly Volatility Spillovers Between International Equity Markets,» (with R. Susmel) Journal of International Money and Finance 13 (1994): 3-25.

95. «Do Bulls and Bears Move Across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility,» (with W.-L. Lin, Takatoshi Ito), Review of Financial Studies 7 (1994): 507-538.

96. Handbook of Econometrics, Volume IV, ed. with D. McFadden, (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1994).

97. «ARCH Models,» (with D. Nelson and T. Bollerslev) in Handbook of Econometrics, Volume IV, ed. R. Engle and D. McFadden (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1994), 2959-3038.
Postscript version. (without Figures 3 and 4).

98. «Forecasting Volatility and Option Prices of the S&P 500 Index,» (with Jaesun Noh and Alex Kane), Journal of Derivatives 2(1994): 17-30.
Postscript version

99. «Multivariate Simultaneous GARCH,» (with K. Kroner), Econometric Theory 11 (1995): 122-150.
Postscript version

100. «Estimating Common Sectoral Cycles,» (with J. Issler), Journal of Monetary Economics 35 (1995): 83-113.

101. «GARCH Gammas,» (with Joshua Rosenberg), Journal of Derivatives 2 (1995): 47-59.

102. «Codependent Cycles,» (with Farshid Vahid), Journal of Econometrics 80 (1997): 199-221.
Postscript version

103. «Estimating Diffusion Models of Stochastic Volatility,» (with G. J. Lee) forthcoming in Modeling Stock Market Volatility, ed. Peter Rossi, Academic Press.

104. «ARCH: Selected Readings,» Oxford University Press, 1995.

105. «Grapplinig with GARCH,» (with Joseph Mezrich), Risk (1995): 112-117.

106. «Index-Option Pricing With Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts,» (with Alex Kan and Jaeson Noh), Review of Derivatives Research, 1 (1997):139-157.
Postscript version

107.»Seasonal Common Features: Global Unemployment,; (with Svend Hylleberg), Oxford Bulletin., 58 (1996): 615-630. Reprinted in «The Econometrics of Economic Policy», ed. A Banerjee and D. Hendry, Blackwell Publishers, 1997
Postscript version

108. «Forecasting the Frequency of Changes in Quoted Foreign Exchange Prices with the ACD Model,» (with Jeffrey R. Russeell), Journal of Empirical Finance, 12 (1997):187-212.

109. «Short-Run Forecasts of Electricity Loads and Peaks,» (with C. W. J. Granger, R. Ramanathan, F. Vahid-Araghi, and C. Brace), International Journal of Forecasting (1997) 13, 161-174.

110. «GARCH for Groups,» (with Joseph Mezrich), Risk (1996) August Vol. 9, No. 8: pp 36-40.

111. «Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data,» (with Jeffrey R. Russell), Econometrica 66 (1998): 1127-1162.
Postscript version
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112. «Stochastic Permanent Breaks,» (with Aaron Smith), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81 (1999): 553-574.
Abstract
Postscript version
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113. «Correlations and Volatilities of Asynchronous Data," (with Pat Burns and Joe Mezrich), Journal of Derivatives (1998) Summer: 1-12.
Abstract
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114.»The Econometrics of Ultra High Frequency Data", Econometrica 68 (2000): 1-22.
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115. «A Permanent and Transitory Component Model of Stock Return Volatility», (with G. J. Lee), in ed. R. Engle and H. White Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honor of Clive W. J. Granger, (Oxford University Press, 1999) 475-497.
Postscript version

116. «Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honor of Clive W. J. Granger», ed. with H. White, Oxford University Press, 1999.

117. «Time and the Price Impact of a Trade", (with Alfonso Dufour), Journal of Finance 55 (2000): 2467-2498.
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Papers in Process
«Testing the Volatility Term Structure Using Option Hedging Criteria» (with Joshua Rosenberg). PDF version

»Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market", (with Joe Lange).
Abstract
Postscript version
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«Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rates Under a Target Zone," (with Yin-Feng Gau).
Abstract
Postscript version
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»Empirical Pricing Kernels," (with Joshua Rosenberg).
PDF version
Microsoft Word 97 Version (most recent version)

«Trade and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process,» (with Asger Lunde).
Abstract
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«The Econometric Analysis of Discrete-Valued Irregularly-Spaced Financial Transactions Data Using a New Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial Model,» (with Jeff Russell).
Abstract
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«CAViaR: Conditional Value At Risk By Regression Quantiles,» (with Simone Manganelli).
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«Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures,» (with Li Li).
Abstract
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«Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market,» (with Young-Hye Cho).

«Time-Varying Betas and Asymmetric Effects of News: Empirical Analysis of Blue Chip Stocks," (with Young-Hye Cho).
PDF Version (1.3 megs)

»Stochastic Permanent Breaks in Vector Time Series," (with Aaron Smith).

«Dynamic Conditional Correlation — A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models."
PDF version

»Financial Econometrics — A New Discipline With New Methods,"
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«Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices," (with Andrew Patton)
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»What Good is a Volatility Model?" (with Andrew Patton)
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«Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH" (with Kevin Sheppard)
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